Methanol Price and Supply/Demand

MI member Argus provides its most recent global methanol industry demand/forecast, production demand/forecast, and methanol unit operating schedule. Argus delivers a comprehensive view on global methanol markets, from upstream natural gas, coal, and other feedstocks to the downstream end user. They provide contract and spot prices, global industry news, analysis of key market drivers, price forecasts, supply and demand outlooks, and consulting.

The Methanol Institute is sharing the information provided by Argus as a service to the community. This does not represent an endorsement by MI and we assume no liability whatsoever concerning the accuracy and completeness of the information presented below and disclaim all liability arising out of the use of such data.

Between 2021 and 2023, global methanol demand remained relatively flat due to challenges such as COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation, and concerns about a potential recession. However, demand has started to recover in 2024 and is projected to grow steadily at a rate of 2-3% in the coming years.

The chart also shows demand for captive methanol used in coal-to-olefin (CTO) and coal-to-propylene (CTP) processes, which is expected to grow at a similar rate. It’s important to note that this methanol is used specifically to produce olefins and polyolefins, so it doesn’t directly impact the merchant methanol market.

While the global methanol market is on track to exceed pre-pandemic demand levels seen in 2019, overall growth will be tempered by slower-than-usual demand in China.

In a balanced market, global methanol production typically aligns closely with demand. However, over the next several years, new production capacity is expected to grow faster than demand. Much of this new capacity will come from North America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and China.

As a result, operating rates across the industry are likely to decline slightly, as oversupply tends to limit price increases. To restore balance, some high-cost producers may significantly scale back production or even exit the market entirely.

As we move into 2025, several planned and unplanned shutdowns are still affecting global methanol production. The Natgasoline facility in Beaumont, Texas, has resumed full operations this month after an unexpected three-month shutdown that began in September. In Norway, production at Equinor’s methanol unit in Tjeldbergodden has restarted following maintenance work. The Sarawak Methanol Complex is also expected to resume operations by the end of the month, and methanol production in Iran and Venezuela is gradually coming back online.

However, methanol production in Germany remains below normal levels.

Globally, supplies are still limited but are improving. The loss of traditional supply sources in Europe has created challenges for the market, and Argus expects prices in Europe to keep rising. While more unplanned outages are likely in the industry, inventory levels should start to rebuild in the first quarter of 2025. If supply volumes increase, this could lead to lower prices in the first half of the year.

MI member Methanol Market Services Asia (MMSA) has provided its most recent historic methanol market assessment of key global pricing and supply/demand figures. MMSA is a Singapore-based consulting firm that services the global methanol industry. MMSA provides weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual market advisory services covering all major worldwide methanol and derivative markets. Their international consulting staff has over 90 combined years of expertise in assessing the methanol and derivatives industries. The Methanol Institute is sharing the information provided by MMSA as a service to the community. This does not represent an endorsement by MI and should not be considered an official reference price index. The Methanol Institute assumes no liability whatsoever concerning the accuracy and completeness of the information presented below and disclaims all liability arising out of the use of such data.