Methanol Price and Supply/Demand

MI member Argus provides its most recent global methanol industry demand/forecast, production demand/forecast, and methanol unit operating schedule. Argus delivers a comprehensive view on global methanol markets, from upstream natural gas, coal, and other feedstocks to the downstream end user. They provide contract and spot prices, global industry news, analysis of key market drivers, price forecasts, supply and demand outlooks, and consulting.

The Methanol Institute is sharing the information provided by Argus as a service to the community. This does not represent an endorsement by MI and we assume no liability whatsoever concerning the accuracy and completeness of the information presented below and disclaim all liability arising out of the use of such data.

Between 2021 and 2023, global methanol demand remained relatively flat due to challenges such as COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation, and concerns about a potential recession. However, demand has started to recover in 2024 and is projected to grow steadily at a rate of 2-3% in the coming years.

The chart also shows demand for captive methanol used in coal-to-olefin (CTO) and coal-to-propylene (CTP) processes, which is expected to grow at a similar rate. It’s important to note that this methanol is used specifically to produce olefins and polyolefins, so it doesn’t directly impact the merchant methanol market.

While the global methanol market is on track to exceed pre-pandemic demand levels seen in 2019, overall growth will be tempered by slower-than-usual demand in China.

In a balanced market, global methanol production typically aligns closely with demand. However, over the next several years, new production capacity is expected to grow faster than demand. Much of this new capacity will come from North America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and China.

As a result, operating rates across the industry are likely to decline slightly, as oversupply tends to limit price increases. To restore balance, some high-cost producers may significantly scale back production or even exit the market entirely.

The global methanol market in 2024 is experiencing both planned and unplanned production outages. Several major facilities are currently offline, including Natgasoline/Equinor, multiple Venezuelan plants, and four units in Iran, with the possibility of additional outages emerging. Production in Germany has also been scaled back.

On a positive note, the Sarawak Methanol Complex successfully began operations on December 6, following months of delays.

MI member Methanol Market Services Asia (MMSA) has provided its most recent historic methanol market assessment of key global pricing and supply/demand figures. MMSA is a Singapore-based consulting firm that services the global methanol industry. MMSA provides weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual market advisory services covering all major worldwide methanol and derivative markets. Their international consulting staff has over 90 combined years of expertise in assessing the methanol and derivatives industries. The Methanol Institute is sharing the information provided by MMSA as a service to the community. This does not represent an endorsement by MI and should not be considered an official reference price index. The Methanol Institute assumes no liability whatsoever concerning the accuracy and completeness of the information presented below and disclaims all liability arising out of the use of such data.